BUY the DIP & SELL the RIP

[erebus]

Here is what I'm thinking and looking at now, the 30 SMA on 4-Hour, using the 4-Bar Fractal as a guide because the Close price is the most important, that is, where is it?

So, sticking with some guide as higher time-frame trend, best if Daily is below the 200 SMA, then looking for the early week 4-Hour move on Tuesday & Wednesday, this is where the weekly wick is made (I can point you to an excellent video on that theory) and observing the Price Action, the 4-Bar Fractal signals around the 30 SMA.

Also, market sentiment on selling NZD started on Thursday and it was obvious on Friday, even though most were saying that there wasn't any news.

This is a basic example, but I can find others, good, bad, and ugly; your thoughts always appreciated. Have a good weekend mate.

 

[erebus]

Another example, EURNZD was an Inside Week, look how the Price Action went. Hint, trend is your friend until the END.



Onto the Daily, bounced off the 200 SMA, watch for the Tuesday / Wednesday reversals, can't make this up.


And the 4-Hour where the magic happens; one day I will get this in real time, with a big hit.

 

[erebus]

If anyone is reading this, did you notice the 4 opposite entry method signals on the last 4-Hour chart were also excellent trades, as shown here -

But the catch is, there was no way to determine that the trend for the week would be long, so it's only a win for hindsight.

 

[erebus]

Watch this video, understand what he says about making the high or low of the week on Tuesday or Wednesday, then check your charts, especially the 4-Hour.

The Weekly Bias - Excellence In Short Term Trading

 

[TheForexGuy]

So the weekly chart gives good insight to the potential future movements of the market. Here are my observations that I have done nothing with yet.

• Just like the Asian session breakout trap, any early week high/low breaks (especially Monday) didn't have a good chance to follow through... and in fact we would likely see a strong reversal in the opposite direction. Think breakout trap and reverse price action.
• Any weeks that had shallow retracements before a breakout usually seen big breakouts. Generally these shallow retracements would happen during Mon-Tues and the breakout would occur on Wed... typically
• This all aligns well with your Mon-Tues WTF system, just wait for the mid week breakouts but look too see what happened during the week before the breakout.
• Weekly support and resistance levels, like really clear ones are major turning points in the market. There will be some price action "collision" interaction when price hits those levels and not good to try trade through them.

I've sat on this info and done nothing with it. I need to get my ass into gear and get a market scanner / ea developed on this and flesh this strategy out more.

But definitely if the weekly chart can guide you on the upcoming moves for the week, your system here can provide a nice intuitive way to enter the market.

 

[erebus]

So many inside weeks and inside days after last week's big trending moves. Some JPY longs look good but the risk of BoJ intervention of the YEN. Except NZD, continues weak on bad news. Patience is the order of the day.

 

[erebus]

I took this USDCAD long yesterday, demo, and got lucky on news spike, also holding a GBPUSD short but that was an Inside Day so anything can happen there.

 

[erebus]

An update on the previously mentioned USDGBP short trade, the arrow is the original signal from last week, X is where I placed it, suffered through consolidation, and draw down since then, now looking good, will move the Take Profit down to the ADR for Thursday if it continues, go USD.

 

[erebus]

Current sell signals on AUDUSD, and EURUSD. Just going to watch the daily close and then strength meter.

 

[vasude]

here is the long entry in usdcad , and target hit.

 

[erebus]

I should have put the demo trades on here this morning, but I had periodontist appointment and other distractions.

There was a bit of inside bar there too, so plenty of opportunities to enter.

 

[erebus]

An example, here is a pair clearly in down trend, weekly, blanked out this week's price

 

[erebus]

And there is the retracement on Daily, possible weekly high made on Wednesday.

 

[erebus]

The signal on 4-hour, below the 30 SMA, so far profits denied if entered, still anything could happen on Friday.

 

[erebus]

An indicator called Trend Meter on Tradingview say "I concur"

 

[erebus]

Look at this, any Trend Meter long signal above the 30 SMA or any sell signal below the 30 SMA

 

[vasude]

hi

gbpjpy has failed to move downside after breakout last week low , a bullish rejection has formed and again it rallies

 

[vasude]

Hi erebus,

typical last week high failed breakout in US/UK oil ,did you catch the move?

 

[erebus]

No, don't trade oil and much reduced trading during 3 weeks of holidays quiet period. Working on the never ending problem of solving for trend spotting and getting on board those winners.