BUY the DIP & SELL the RIP

[erebus]

If you think the long trades were a good results, check out all the short trades; only 3 still open, no losers, and 20 winners! I mean, 20 winners at 0.25% risk are 5% of your account, think about that.

Example is EURUSD, the "X" signals of previous week are losers, so should we not enter that late on a Friday perhaps? And the 5th signal not recorded but an obvious winner from the reversal top.

 

[erebus]

Another visual tracking method for the week, pairs and signals are color coded and candles number 1 to 30.





And then I realized if I added the Trend column, I could sort the Buy & Sell pairs, and also tally each.

 

[erebus]

And then I realized that I also needed a Multi Chart for the Neutral pairs as per the previous posted Up Trend and Down Trend chart; have to watch for when the bias decides to take a direction.

 

[erebus]

I don't know if this is good or not, so early in the week, 4 signals on Candle 2 already, 3 sell and 1 buy, let's see what happens, demo is in all 4.

 

[erebus]

EURNZD hits Take Profit, not that surprising when looking at previous retracements, as Candle 2 wasn't a problem, the other 3 in profits.

 

[erebus]

Another signal on the EURNZD, here is how easy it is to check and record these signals, change the charts at 1, read the signals at 2 and enter in spreadsheet as shown - Candle 2 and 9 there. Can see this week so far for all pairs.

 

[erebus]

Okay, did I mention that I wasn't trading any CHF pair? Out of the original 28, that left 21 pairs. Now I decided to also drop AUDNZD, EURGBP, USDCAD, which are all correlated and trade the same market times. This leaves a balanced group of 18 pairs, with 10 down trend, 4 up trend and 4 neutral trend. This is the new spreadsheet for this week.

 

[erebus]

Some great results coming in, all EUR charts pretty much the same signals.

 

[erebus]

I'm running this on 2 Demo accounts and my own live account. One is at 1% risk per trade, see below, it's looking good, and the other is at 0.5%.

 

[CamFX]

Looking good mate, very interesting.

 

[erebus]

Looking good mate, very interesting.

It was, but GBP got strong for some reason, oh well, 1-day doesn't make a trend change, some USD news soon, and then we have Freaky Friday.

Thanks, any questions?

 

[erebus]

Update on the week past, or is it, passed? September 25 to 29, was end of month, end of quarter, IF all signals were taken as given, mechanically, the week was breakeven results, but I made satisfactory progress in the 2 demo accounts. Charts to follow.



On edit: Here is the sheet with the signals as per candle numbers, quite a few late in the week as the CAD weakened considerably on the news, while AUD and NZD got strong for no apparent reason. Bank holiday today in Australia, Chinea and Canada; I doubt if I would enter any positions; also, it is necessary to determine the Trend Bias for pairs due to the late and large moves last week.

 

[erebus]

This is the poster chart for the manual explaining this system; 4 signals, 4 winner, minimum drawdown, maximum profits. Any questions?

PS: My new style chart, note that the 4-Bar fractal indicators is also showing the continuation signals as the smaller stars.

 

[erebus]

Here is the chart as I normally look at it with the 200 EMA and FX Power showing the longer-term strength and weakness.

On the GBPAUD you can see the AUD is not as strong as we would like it to be, but it came back; can it continue this week is the question.



Now, for the AUDCAD, we can see that AUD strength and the CAD collapsed. Now, sticking to the plan of just 4 entries kept the damage to a minimum. The plan for this week, watch the first 2 days to evaluate if the move continues, is it enough to change the trend on the daily, can it even get to the 200 EMA which is a long way above on Daily? Perhaps, it gets there and reverses? Patience is needed, also, NFP this Friday.




On edit: PS: we have the RBA interest rate on Tuesday as well, not expected to increase the rates this time, how will the market view this? Good for strong AUD or bad for weak AUD, let's wait and see.

 

[erebus]

I have GBP weakest with USD and NZD strongest, so they are best options for trades this week, depending on news of course.

This is the price action of yesterday; using a stop loss of 85 pips, the 2 circled trades of Friday would be losers, and the next 2 would be winners as shown by the Fibo tool, so the breakeven continues. USD sure bounced back, but let's see what happens today.

 

[erebus]

Check this out, if we believed in the major trend, taken smaller, fixed size positions, no stop loss, they would all be in profits now!

 

[erebus]

Update: Week of October 2 - 6, 2023, no trades entered, no confidence in any of the trends. Many expert analysts are writing about a USD reversal, it will take a long time to shift the EMA's, and now Israel is at war.

Week Ahead: King Dollar Stalls

 

[TheForexGuy]

Thanks Erebus I will have a read of this later tonight. Thanks very much for sharing.

 

[erebus]

Thanks Erebus I will have a read of this later tonight. Thanks very much for sharing.

No problem, not doing much this week, market is in turmoil, trends may change, bank holidays, WAR, and I go hospital for procedure today, Tuesday, so probably take it easy for a week. Cheers.

 

[TheForexGuy]

Sure thing, I got bored of my panel update projects, I might turn this into an EA for you so you can recover from hospital while your computer makes money.