Monthly Performance

[Hicham]

Hello Traders,

I was wondering if some of you can share with us your monthtly performance using TFG strategy ? I will start in Feb 2016 so I would be happy to share it with you next month.
It would be interesting to compare it with others and see how people are doing well and how other not and see how we can help each other to increase our performance.

- Monthly performance (%)
- Win/loss ratio
- Risk-reward

Happy trading !
Niverto

 

[Rico]

Not quite what you're asking about, but something that irritates me, and i believe makes it more difficult for newer PA traders to stay motivated, and harder to learn: that is, that none of the PA educators that i'm aware of share their trading results, even in private membership areas.

There's only one guy i've found so far who seems to have a long and distinguished trading career that has shared his results - to a very limited degree ie you can find results for one month here and there. I have seen a MyFxBook-type account for this trader over a year, so can verify that the months he's shown aren't good months out of a whole range of bad months.

Unfortunately, that tracking account has now been taken down because - i'm guessing - he now has a membership site at a different place.

Anyway, seeing his results made me realise that it was really possible to make good money with something like a 50% winning rate. If educators simply showed their results, pointing things like this out (as the trader mentioned did), it would give them a lot more credibility and be able to show students that while they probably wouldn't be able to get the same results out of the box, they'd know what was possible and have something to aim for.

I actually read about price action in 2010, but didn't take enough notice partly because people weren't sharing their results. People would say it was the way 'pros' trade, but no one was willing to actually share their results! So while what they said seemed to make sense, how did you know it wasn't just hot air like so many forex claims? (Although spending more in depth time examining what they said could have brought results.)

Chris Capre of 2nd Skies Forex had a go at Niall Fuller and other PA educators because he said there isn't a MyFxBook account to be found among them - let alone a solid one. I think he has a real point. However when i asked him if he had one, he said that none of his trading platforms interfaced with MyFxBook.

 

[Hicham]

Hi Rico,

I agree with you and this is why I pointed out this. I would like PA traders to share their results even if they are not pros, but it could help other traders to build confidence if they see that some traders are profitable usine the forex guy strategy. My question was kind of :

- Are you profitable ?
- Are your win/loss ratio around 40/50% with risk reward at least 1:2 ?

I have intra-day strategy (live) but my goal is to use this website to have swing trading and as soon as I finalize it I will share my results.

I know a lot of pro traders that talk making sense but few of them share their results.

 

[Rico]

The results of my first month's demo trading are below.

Not very good, but I was a bit experimental - that is, i took more than one trade some days just to try things out or get more experience. So this first month doesn't reflect how i'd trade in real life. Even so, the results aren't very good.

If i let all my trades run until they hit profit or loss, my win rate would likely be closer to 0%.

 

[Hicham]

Thanks Rico for showing us your results.
Are you trading the forex guy strategy ?

The question that raised to my mind is that looking at your results I am questionning if your wining trades was full take profit or cutting trades earlier ?

If Full take profit then : you need to adjust the Risk reward as the losing trades are higher than the losing ones
If cutting trades earlier then : you might think of letting your winning trade to run more

If like you said you will be at 0% winning trade if you let your trades to run maybe you have to adjust your strategy ? by focusing only on high probability set-up ?

Thanks for your sharing

 

[TheForexGuy]

Understandable points made here.

For me personally, I don't want to expose my account for hundreds or even thousands of traders to watch. I've got my 'zone' I am happy with at the moment, where I can maintain a good level of discipline to swing trade effectively

In the past I've been pressured to share my trading activity and it brought unexpected stress into my trading.

I am experienced, but still human - although losses occur naturally in trading and I am comfortable dealing with them in my own personal space, experiencing losses, or draw down in front of an audience, especially a critical audience, can have real negative effects on you personally and really start to unhinge your discipline.

No one wants to show off losing trades. Even trades that look like they're starting to move against you, it will make you freak out, and lose sleep because you know 1000 people are watching it and you don't want your stats to go down.

I am making an effort to record tutorial videos and show you guys me trading with my real account. Not just cherry picking the good trades, but also I have recorded losing ones also.

Long story short, I know that my discipline will crumble easily if make my trading a public spectacle. Sure, if I perform well that will give me bragging rights and draw a lot of attention, but the pressure will always be there to 'pump up the stats', which may result in stupid mistakes.

That's my honest answer.

Chris Capre of 2nd Skies Forex had a go at Niall Fuller and other PA educators because he said there isn't a MyFxBook account to be found among them - let alone a solid one. I think he has a real point. However when i asked him if he had one, he said that none of his trading platforms interfaced with MyFxBook.

Incorrect, Myfxbook uses the 'investor' password to scan your account, and build the analytics from your trades. The trading software has got nothing to do with it.

 

[Hicham]

Thanks Dale for your comment, for sure it is understandable. What I am suggesing here is people sharing with us their average performance per month without anyone showing his account in detail obvisously.

As the strategy looks pretty good, I am wondering what could be the average performance of people using this strategy, their risk reward and how many trades they took per month.

Thanks

 

[Rico]

Thanks Rico for showing us your results.
Are you trading the forex guy strategy ?

The question that raised to my mind is that looking at your results I am questionning if your wining trades was full take profit or cutting trades earlier ?

If Full take profit then : you need to adjust the Risk reward as the losing trades are higher than the losing ones
If cutting trades earlier then : you might think of letting your winning trade to run more

If like you said you will be at 0% winning trade if you let your trades to run maybe you have to adjust your strategy ? by focusing only on high probability set-up ?

Thanks for your sharing

Yes, i traded TFG strategy, using the trade panel to enter trades, but as i said, i was a bit looser and experimental my first month just getting a feel for things. Several of the trades are TFG Trades of the Day which either didn't pan out or didn't trigger (though several aren't).

As i said, i cut my winning trades short, but i think these were reasonable decisions. The first winning trade started to move into a price shuffle. It only went up significantly today, so i would've had to hold the trade over 3 weeks before getting anywhere. Should we be keeping trades like this open for that long?

With the second winning trade, that went into a price shuffle as well. That did break out of it as well, and earlier than the EURUSD trade mentioned above, but it still took just under 2 weeks.

I closed my final AUDUSD trade because there was a downward pin bar at daily resistance level, plus i'd entered the trade manually using the trade panel, and for some reason it only created a trade of 0.01 lot size. Again, that trade would have taken off today, but given the pin bar and flunky lot size, i think it was reasonable to close it.

 

[Rico]

Incorrect, Myfxbook uses the 'investor' password to scan your account, and build the analytics from your trades. The trading software has got nothing to do with it.

I'm not sure what you're referring to here as incorrect, since MyFxBook does only work with certain platforms.

From their site: "Currently supported platforms are: cTrader, MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5, fxTrade/fxTrade Practice, FXCM Trading Station and Strategy Trader."

While that covers some of the most popular platforms, there are a range of others out there.

 

[Rico]

In an earlier post i mentioned one experienced trader who does post results at times, and just before when i visited his YouTube channel, i saw a video up of most of his January results.

So while he obviously doesn't use TFG method, he does trade based on price action, and it's really helpful to see the potential of this style of trading. In fact, from what Dale said in his last (?) weekly summary video, i don't think TFG method fared so well in January, but this guy managed to pull hundred of pips out of the market.

As i said before, seeing older results of his made me really understand that it was possible to be successful making only 2-5 really good trades a month and keeping your losses under control.

Anyway, here's the video:

 

[TheForexGuy]

I'm not sure what you're referring to here as incorrect, since MyFxBook does only work with certain platforms.

From their site: "Currently supported platforms are: cTrader, MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5, fxTrade/fxTrade Practice, FXCM Trading Station and Strategy Trader."

While that covers some of the most popular platforms, there are a range of others out there.

I believe that is only for their trade copy service, not their analytics.

 

[Rico]

What is Myfxbook?
Myfxbook is an online automated analytical tool for your forex trading account and a social forex community first of its kind. Currently supporting* over 100 brokers, enabling you to track, compare, analyze and share your trading activity...

*Currently supported platforms are: cTrader, MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5, fxTrade/fxTrade Practice, FXCM Trading Station and Strategy Trader

https://www.myfxbook.com/

 

[stevko]

Understandable points made here.
...
I am making an effort to record tutorial videos and show you guys me trading with my real account. Not just cherry picking the good trades, but also I have recorded losing ones also.

Long story short, I know that my discipline will crumble easily if make my trading a public spectacle. Sure, if I perform well that will give me bragging rights and draw a lot of attention, but the pressure will always be there to 'pump up the stats', which may result in stupid mistakes.

That's my honest answer.

Hello Dale
... and this is what me personally attracted to check out your lessons. your calmness in those openly published videos exposes a solid foundation and clarity, which is perfect to have as a mentor. Your commentaries give quite a good insight of how you seem to trade yourself. But the most important lesson you teach, is to keep disturbing emotions off the trading screen, and obviously you know how to protect yourself. Inspiring!

 

[tjenarvi]

Incorrect, Myfxbook uses the 'investor' password to scan your account, and build the analytics from your trades. The trading software has got nothing to do with it.

Yes indeed

 

[TheForexGuy]

So while he obviously doesn't use TFG method, he does trade based on price action, and it's really helpful to see the potential of this style of trading. In fact, from what Dale said in his last (?) weekly summary video, i don't think TFG method fared so well in January, but this guy managed to pull hundred of pips out of the market.

C'mon man, that's nothing more than a spreadsheet that's been filmed. It's not any kind of hard verifiable results that you know he actually traded.

How hard is it to look back through the markets once a month and create a spreadsheet to make an impressive display like this. At least the videos I show you are the trade from start to finish.

seeing older results of his made me really understand that it was possible to be successful making only 2-5 really good trades a month

His 'results' show he traded nearly every day of the month.

 

[Rico]

Yes, the spreadsheet tracks his trades, just like i have a spreadsheet journal that tracks mine. I mentioned in the first post of the thread that this guy used to have a public FxBlue account (like MyFxBook but not as good). While it was available, i compared trades on that to the spreadsheets he shares, and they matched up.

Yes he traded nearly every day of the month. But my point (and his) was that you could be successful making only 2-5 good trades a month. Even though he traded almost every day, most were losers, and while he had a reasonable number of winners, only 5 were over 100 pips.

According to his bio he's spent over 30 years trading, more than 20 years of that on Wall St, so seems to me like he'd be worth paying attention to.

 

[Rico]

A record of my February demo trading appears below.

I added a few columns since January, as follows: COD means a TFG Chart of the Day. So if it shows 5, that means it's the 5th TFG Chart of the Day i've traded.

CW = Chart of the Day Win. If it shows 2, that means i've had 2 COD wins. CWR means Chart of the Day Win Rate. That's the percentage of Chart of the Day trades i've taken that were winners.

Moving towards the right hand side, in the third column from the left, i have MWR. This is my Monthly Win Rate, as opposed to the previous column which shows my win rate since starting this record.

My overall win rate is about the same as January, although i had my first winner that hit full take profit (EURJPY). The only consolation is i lost about half as much in $ as i did last month. Hopefully this month i can improve more.

 

[Rico]

I've attached my latest results for March 2016. I found that there were various mistakes in my spreadsheet, so I've tried to correct them.

While it was still a poor month this time round, I did improve. In January I lost around $600, February I halved that to about $300, and last month I made it a third less, around $100. Actually, I would have broken even if it wasn't for using the beta of the new TFG mm panel, where I forgot to update settings for risk.

I have been taking 1% risk, but because I forgot to change the default settings, I risked 2%, and since that trade turned out a loser, I lost double what I would have.

 

[Rico]

Attached are my April results - my first profitable month. So much so, in fact, that i more than wiped out half the debt i racked up in the first 3 months.

Most of that money came from 2 larger winners, confirming what Mark Shawzin (mentioned earlier) says, that you only need 2 or 3 bigger winners a month to get you ahead.

My overall win rate - that is, from the start of the year - went from 20% to 29%. But my monthly win rate went from 25% to over 60%!

I doubt i'll repeat that rate this month - although never say never! - but i hope to come out ahead again.

 

[chyeo1979]

Interesting topic. But i find it quite hard to define a winning trade (losing trade is obvious) sometimes. Example a trade which you took profit much earlier, and had you not do so, it would went back to trigger your stoploss without hitting your target. Is this a win?

My first two ever fx live trades were lucky ones which hit the target (270pips and 192pips). After that i find it really hard to hit my target price and would always take profit earlier when the market retraced a bit.