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Discussion in 'Trade Journals - Show us your Candlesticks!' started by Kooyar, Feb 20, 2016.
Here is my analysis on oil price for the first half of the 2017. For this analysis, have modeled the 6 month candles for 2016. Before this, I was very hopeful about starting a strong bullish trend in the coming months but now, I'm not very optimistic, at least, for the first half of the 2017. Unless, Santa brings the missing golden part of the candle that I have shown in the chart in the days ahead...
Merry Christmas to all and hope all of you have a very Happy Holidays with your family.
I think we are in an exciting time of the history in the market. I'm going to explain why. Every major trend change, opens up huge opportunities to create wealth. And these major trend changes do not happen very often in the life of each person. Looking at copper or crude oil charts, this has happened almost 4 times since 1985. In a best scenario, if someone that has born in 1980-1990, has likely missed 3 instances of those 4 major trend changes, because of his/her age. And, if that person was lucky enough to get into the financial market and investment path either by his/her educational major or through his/her interest like myself soon after finishing the formal education, then, the same person most likely has missed the 4th one also, as he/she was in the learning process during that period. That was why I called it an exciting time in the history if this trend change happens. Signs of a trend change can be seen in many commodities and hope it sustains.
And catching the trend at the right time does make a big difference on the amount of gain that can be made. In future and in an appropriate time, I'll share one of my own experiences which is very related to this topic. But for now, have a wonderful holidays.
It's quite a time I didn't get a chance to post any trade here. Here is my new position on USDCAD. Looks to me at the moment bulls are weaker than bears at daily level. I see higher possibility for price to fall than to rise. So, I've shorted the pair @1.3333. Let see how it will progress.
so 112.66 - 111.00 = 166 pips = 22%
so 350 / 166 = 2.11
so drawdown, 22% x 2.11 = 48,84%
If you held thru that = WOW
a good case for hedging, if you buy & sell at the same time, you could have made money going down and still hold your bullish bias
Hedging is simply not my style. Your calculation for the drawdown was correct, that was exactly what did happen. My entry for that trade was a blind entry and only was based on the big picture pattern. If you look at my next trade( Buying copper), you will see the improvement on the entry point.
Overall, I think any successful trader should go through the painful moments in the trading process in order to become unemotional to the trade and money. Trust me, you will find out a lot of interesting facts during this process.
My new position is a buy position on CAD/JPY with leverage of 1/7.
Expecting to keep this trade open for few weeks. I'll post the result once the position is closed.