Fundamentals

[waseem143]

Hi brother !
Can you clearly tell me that in fundamentals which news are highly effective ????
I mean while trading our Daily TF we oftenly find news just like
FOMC , Jellen speach, Daraghi Speech, BOE , Trade Balance, Unemployment, NFP

etc etc . . .

in daily tf we find very few great signals . . and if we find them than news are ready to disturb our signals
ForexGuy (The Price Action Specialist) can you list some news that we should consider while trading so that we can ignore unnecesary news stress . . .


I currently watch news on Forex Factory


Suggest some thing

 

[TheForexGuy]

The news can't be avoided, it's a fact of Forex trading and can get in the way of any trading signal from any trading system. When you're trading from the daily chart, you've got less chance to be negatively impacted by the news.

I don't watch the news, I just follow the price action. The extremely volatile moves are generally caused by fed speeches and NFP, if you're worried about them just don't open trades before those announcements.

If you try to avoid all the news releases then you won't ever find the chance to trade. Don't forget a news release can push your trade into profits as well, they aren't all evil.

 

[erebus]

Yes, there is always NEWS but don't confuse News with Fundamentals

News is about the Fundamentals for example Australia lowers interest rates, which affects the underlying value of the various FX cross pairs

When you find out about it, that is the News

So, just have a awareness of the fundamentals and watch for Price Action to match

For example EUR has started a QE type program, this will fundamentally weaken the EUR against all pair

Look for the long trend, trade any daily signal you find in these pairs

So as TFG states, watch FF for the RED news, be careful trading around those times

Here is an article about which type of news affects the FX markets

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/05/tradingonnews.asp

 

[erebus]

USDJPY & oil M&As recall the late 1990s

very interesting article

http://www.cityindex.co.uk/market-analysis/market-news/37236032015/usdjpy-oil-mas-recall-the-late-1990s/?cid=0000215115

 

[bladerunner]

Will there be another EM crisis ? Would UJ and other yen crosses be bid with flight to safety. For me, with the Chinese stock market going parabolic, it seems there will be another EM crisis but not yet, until that blows up. Thanks for sharing your links erebus, great stuff. I like this blog for global macro:
https://globalmacrotrading.wordpress.com/

 

[erebus]

May 27, 2015

Fundamentals:

The USD remains the strongest currency in the longer term, and the short-term sentiment now matches this bullishness. Friday’s CPI along with positive data on Tuesday has reaffirmed USD strength amid speculation of a rate hike by September.

The EUR remains fundamentally weak due to QE and the ongoing Greek debt issue. If Greece fails to make any of their imminent repayments, the euro will be pressured further.

GBP is looking at a rate hike in the next 12 months and also has bullish short term sentiment which matches this fundamental backdrop. A recent run of positive data and upbeat meeting minutes have buoyed the pound against weaker currencies. This strength is expected to remain.

AUD is relatively neutral now there is no speculation of rate cuts in the near term. As such it will take most of its direction from the price of iron ore and economic activity in China. Movements in AUDUSD will largely be a function of USD sentiment. AUD enjoys a positive interest differential against all majors except NZD; fundamentally this is bullish for the currency. Recent strength in USD combined with low commodities prices forecasts will likely weigh on AUD in the weeks ahead.

NZD has a chance of decreasing interest rates in coming months. The Overnight Index Swap market is pricing a 51% chance of a June 11 cut. Several major banks predict a cut in both June and July, while NZIER expects the RBNZ to remain on hold for at least the rest of the year, as they believe the central bank cannot afford to boost the overheating housing market.

CAD remains on the weaker side of neutral until we see more data or direction from the BOC. CAD will take most of its direction from any significant changes in the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil. When there is no oil-related news, the oil price will generally move with negative correlation to the USD. Last Friday’s CPI and Retail Sales came in worse than expected which is negative for CAD.

JPY remains bearish due to QQE. Yen weakness has accelerated recently on the back of USD strength. This move is expected to continue. Sentiment on the JPY can turn bullish quickly if there is major uncertainty in the markets.

CHF is fundamentally a weaker currency given the SNB’s negative interest rates, however it is highly susceptible to volatility due to SNB potentially intervening to weaken the currency as it tends to strengthen on safe-haven demand. CHF often will take direction from the EUR with which its correlation over the last 50 trading days is 74%.

 

[tjenarvi]

thanks Erebus, whatever your source it is, I like it, thanks for sharing this

 

[erebus]

May 28, 2015

Fundamentals:

The USD remains the strongest currency in the longer term, and the short-term sentiment now matches this bullishness. Friday’s CPI along with positive data on Tuesday has reaffirmed USD strength amid speculation of a rate hike by September.

The EUR remains fundamentally weak due to QE and the ongoing Greek debt issue. If Greece fails to make any of their imminent repayments, the euro will be pressured further.

GBP is looking at a rate hike in the next 12 months and also has bullish short term sentiment which matches this fundamental backdrop. A recent run of positive data and upbeat meeting minutes have buoyed the pound against weaker currencies. This strength is expected to remain.

AUD has changed to a downward bias after the poor Capex data. This may weigh on the upcoming GDP reading. The RBA may consider further cuts this year. Recent strength in USD combined with low commodities prices forecasts will likely weigh on AUD in the weeks ahead.

NZD has a chance of decreasing interest rates in coming months. The Overnight Index Swap market is pricing a 51% chance of a June 11 cut. Several major banks predict a cut in both June and July, while NZIER expects the RBNZ to remain on hold for at least the rest of the year, as they believe the central bank cannot afford to boost the overheating housing market.

CAD remains on the weaker side of neutral until we see more data or direction from the BOC. CAD will take most of its direction from any significant changes in the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil. When there is no oil-related news, the oil price will generally move with negative correlation to the USD. Last Friday’s CPI and Retail Sales came in worse than expected which is negative for CAD.

JPY remains bearish due to QQE. Yen weakness has accelerated recently on the back of USD strength. This move is expected to continue. Sentiment on the JPY can turn bullish quickly if there is major uncertainty in the markets.

CHF is fundamentally a weaker currency given the SNB’s negative interest rates, however it is highly susceptible to volatility due to SNB potentially intervening to weaken the currency as it tends to strengthen on safe-haven demand. CHF often will take direction from the EUR with which its correlation over the last 50 trading days is 74%.

 

[erebus]

May 29, 2015

As above

 

[erebus]

Dear RANsquawk user,

We sincerely apologise for the interruptions in service that you have experienced this week. This is as frustrating for you as it is for us as the problems that we have faced are completely out of our control.

The issues that have occurred this week are because - amazingly for 2015 - the hard line power to our building has malfunctioned. It has nothing to do with our servers or our internal website systems.

RANsquawk is headquartered in the Heron Tower, the newest and supposedly most technically advanced building in the City of London, which opened in 2013. We invested significantly to be in such a premier address in order to have access to state of the art internet connectivity and minimal downtime.

However since the beginning of 2015, we have started to see various issues occurring with systems most companies take for granted (electricity/air conditioning/ telephones) and it has culminated with this week's series of catastrophes where our staff have had to work without air conditioning all week and yesterday from 1600BST to 0800BST today the buildings entire power system shut down.

We have also invested in back up UPS power, which we were running on for a limited amount of time, but it was not enough to run on for days or to power the lighting, phones, air-con or elevators to our offices. This became a safety hazard for our staff in addition to not being able to broadcast to you, our clients.

We understand that this makes very little difference to you as a RANsquawk user but we would nevertheless like to point out that we are being made to look unprofessional by events that are truly out of our control.

Over 100 businesses are based here at the Heron Tower and all of them have faced the same issues as us this week and every one has lost both business and credibility as a result of the problems that have occurred with the building's infrastructure.

We are both frustrated and embarrassed by these issues and we will do everything in our power to make sure they are not repeated. However we do not control the inner workings of the building we occupy and so unfortunately we remain dependent on the management of the Heron Tower to sort things out.

We remain confident that moving forward they will remedy these issues quickly and we will of course keep you updated with events as soon as they occur.

Kind regards,

Ranvir Singh

CEO

RANsquawk

 

[erebus]

Monday, June 1, 2015

Current Market Update:

The USD remains the strongest currency in the longer term, and the short-term sentiment now matches this bullishness. The recent CPI reading has reaffirmed USD strength amid speculation of a rate hike by September. This week’s NFP will be vitally important.

The EUR remains fundamentally weak due to QE and the ongoing Greek debt issue. If Greece fails to make any of their imminent repayments, the euro will be pressured further.

GBP is looking at a rate hike in the next 12 months. We will need further data to assess short term sentiment.

AUD has changed to a downward bias after the poor Capex data. This may weigh on the upcoming GDP reading. The RBA may consider further cuts this year. Recent strength in USD combined with low commodities prices forecasts will likely weigh on AUD in the weeks ahead. Several banks have raised their expectations of further easing by the RBA. The ASX 30-Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures show a 4% chance of the RBA cutting again this year whereas the OIS market prices a 19% chance.

NZD has a chance of decreasing interest rates next week. The Overnight Index Swap market is pricing a 51% chance of a June 11 cut. Several major banks predict a cut in both June and July, while NZIER expects the RBNZ to remain on hold for at least the rest of the year, as they believe the central bank cannot afford to boost the overheating housing market.

CAD remains on the weaker side of neutral. GDP last Friday was weak, prior to that CPI and Retail Sales were also weak. CAD will take most of its direction from any significant changes in the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil. When there is no oil-related news, the oil price will generally move with negative correlation to the USD.

JPY remains bearish due to QQE. Yen weakness has accelerated recently on the back of USD strength. This move is expected to continue. Sentiment on the JPY can turn bullish quickly if there is major uncertainty in the markets.

CHF is fundamentally a weaker currency given the SNB’s negative interest rates, however it is highly susceptible to volatility due to SNB potentially intervening to weaken the currency as it tends to strengthen on safe-haven demand. CHF often will take direction from the EUR with which its correlation over the last 50 trading days is 74%.

 

[TheForexGuy]

Sounds like a big bearish party.

Will EURUSD break parity?

 

[erebus]

Market has it own ideas looks like, doesn't read the Davis column I guess

 

[erebus]

Thursday, June 4, 2015

Current Market Update:

The USD remains the strongest currency in the longer term. The recent CPI reading has reaffirmed USD strength amid speculation of a rate hike by September. This week’s NFP will be vitally important. Long positioning in the dollar over the past 18 months has been significant; this can cause aggressive downward moves in the USD, occasionally on the back of little fundamental data, as stop-losses are triggered. In recent sessions we have seen USD weakness as US data comes out mixed and positive sentiment on other currencies such as AUD and EUR takes the focus.

The EUR remains fundamentally weak due to QE and the ongoing Greek debt issue, however recent inflation and unemployment numbers have signalled that a recovery is on track, which has given the currency positive sentiment. If Greece fails to make any of their imminent repayments, the euro will be pressured. Conversely, a deal with a solid resolution will precipitate a relief rally.

GBP is looking at a rate hike in the next 12 months. Yesterday’s Services PMI was very negative for the pound, however Cable regained its losses due to dollar weakness.

AUD: Low commodity prices and a slowdown in China has put bearish pressure on the AUD, however the recent RBA statement did not include any specific mention of further cuts and stated that inflation is expected to remain within target. This, along with better than expected GDP, has provided bullish sentiment for the AUD and has shifted the currency to a more neutral stance fundamentally. The positive data from the first half of the week has been somewhat discounted by today’s trade deficit and poor retail sales number.

NZD has a chance of decreasing interest rates next week. The Overnight Index Swap market is pricing a 51% chance of a June 11 cut. Several major banks predict a cut in both June and July, while NZIER expects the RBNZ to remain on hold for at least the rest of the year, as they believe the central bank cannot afford to boost the overheating housing market.

CAD remains on the weaker side of neutral. GDP last Friday was weak, prior to that CPI and Retail Sales were also weak. CAD will take most of its direction from any significant changes in the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil. When there is no oil-related news, the oil price will generally move with negative correlation to the USD.

JPY remains bearish due to QQE. Yen weakness has accelerated recently on the back of USD strength. Yen is at a 12-year low against the dollar. Sentiment on the JPY can turn bullish quickly if there is major uncertainty in the markets. Language from the BOJ shows they believe a recovery is beginning and QQE is having its intended effect.

CHF is fundamentally a weaker currency given the SNB’s negative interest rates, however it is highly susceptible to volatility due to SNB potentially intervening to weaken the currency as it tends to strengthen on safe-haven demand. CHF often will take direction from the EUR with which its correlation over the last 50 trading days is 74%.

 

[erebus]

Friday 12 June 2015 = Fundamentals:

The USD remains the strongest currency in the longer term. The recent NFP reading has reaffirmed USD strength amid speculation of a rate hike by September. Although we expect bullish sentiment on the dollar to remain in the near term, it is near its long-term highs against most counterparts and therefore may be susceptible to pullacks – such pullbacks will likely provide buying opportunities.

The EUR remains fundamentally weak due to QE and the ongoing Greek debt issue, however recent inflation and unemployment numbers have signalled that a recovery is on track, which has given the currency some positive sentiment recently. If Greece fails to make any of their imminent repayments, the euro will be pressured. Conversely, a deal with a solid resolution will precipitate a relief rally.

GBP is looking at a rate hike in the next 12 months. There is no clear sentiment on pound at present. We await some tier one data to help guide trading decisions on the currency.

AUD: Low commodity prices and a slowdown in China has put bearish pressure on the AUD, however the recent RBA statement did not include any specific mention of further cuts and stated that inflation is expected to remain within target. Last week saw mixed data from Australia, with both better and worse data coming in. Overall the bias for AUD is on the bearish side of neutral, until we see more data. The market surprisingly shrugged off Stephens’s bearish comments yesterday and today’s stellar jobs report has given bullish sentiment to AUD.

NZD now has a new official cash rate of 3.25% after the RBNZ cut rates. They have left the door open for further easing and as such the Kiwi dollar is a bearish currency.

CAD remains on the weaker side of neutral. CAD will take most of its direction from any significant changes in the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil. When there is no oil-related news, the oil price will generally move with negative correlation to the USD.

JPY remains bearish due to QQE. Yen weakness has accelerated recently on the back of USD strength. Yen is at a 12-year low against the dollar. Sentiment on the JPY can turn bullish quickly if there is severe uncertainty in the markets. Language from the BOJ shows they believe a recovery is beginning and QQE is having its intended effect. Recent positive GDP readings have dampened speculation of any additional easing, and Kuroda’s recent comments have spurred strength in the yen.

CHF is fundamentally a weaker currency given the SNB’s negative interest rates. It is highly susceptible to volatility due to SNB potentially intervening to weaken the currency as it tends to strengthen on safe-haven demand. CHF often will take direction from the EUR with which its correlation over the last 50 trading days is approximately 75%.

 

[erebus]

Another week begins Monday, 15 June 2015

Currency Update:

The ‪USD‬ remains the strongest currency in the longer term. The recent Core ‪#‎CPI‬ and ‪#‎NFP‬ readings have reaffirmed USD strength amid speculation of a ‪#‎RateHike‬ by September. Although we expect bullish sentiment on the dollar to remain in the near term, it is near its long-term highs against most counterparts and therefore may be susceptible to pullacks - such pullbacks will likely provide buying opportunities. This week's ‪#‎FOMC‬ statement will be critical for the USD.

The ‪EUR remains fundamentally weak due to QE and the ongoing Greek debt issue, however recent inflation and unemployment numbers have signalled that a recovery is on track, which gave the currency some temporary positive sentiment. There is currently a high correlation between bund yields and the euro. If Greece fails to make any of their imminent repayments, the euro will be pressured. Conversely, a deal with a solid resolution will precipitate a relief rally.

‪GBP‬ is looking at a rate hike in the next 12 months and is therefore a fundamentally bullish currency in the long term. There is no clear sentiment on pound at present, however this week we expect new tradeable information to be revealed at any of the several tier one news releases.

AUD‬: Low commodity prices and a slowdown in China has put bearish pressure on the AUD. Overall the bias for AUD is on the bearish side of neutral, until we see more data. Language from Governor Stephens last week was dovish.

‪#‎NZD‬ has a new official cash rate of 3.25% after the ‪#‎RBNZ‬ cut rates on June 11. The Bank has left the door open for further easing and as such the ‪#‎Kiwi‬ dollar is a bearish currency in the medium term.

‪#‎CAD‬ remains on the weaker side of neutral. In the absence of unexpected data, CAD will take most of its direction from any significant changes in the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil. When there is no oil-related news, the oil price will generally move with negative correlation to the USD.

‪#‎JPY‬ remains bearish due to QQE. Yen weakness has accelerated recently on the back of USD strength. Yen is at a 12-year low against the dollar. Sentiment on the JPY can turn bullish quickly if there is severe uncertainty in the markets. Language from the ‪#‎BOJ‬ shows they believe a recovery is beginning and QQE is having its intended effect. Recent positive ‪#‎GDP‬ readings have dampened speculation of any additional easing, and Kuroda's recent comments that the yen is near its long term lows have spurred strength in the yen.

‪#‎CHF‬ is fundamentally a weaker currency given the SNB's negative interest rates. It is highly susceptible to volatility due to ‪#‎SNB‬ potentially intervening to weaken the currency as it tends to strengthen on safe-haven demand. CHF often will take direction from the EUR with which its correlation over the last 50 trading days is approximately 75%.

 

[erebus]

A little long but full of information

The European Debt Crisis Visualized

 

[RF1508]

Very nice video.
Basically; the eurozone is (still) not united enough.
This process will take some more decades as we have seen in history when forming the US and the former Sovjet union (bit different, but hey).

The southern countries are spending more and more.
The northern countries are cutting costs even more to pay for the southern countries.

I just might move to Greece or Portugal, retire and lay at the beach.

It reminds me of a nice tale;

A man was enjoying his holiday in Greece.
While sipping his cocktail on the beach every day he could see a fisherman leaving at 09:00 and returning at 12:00. Every day he caught some fish and sold some at the market, but didn't work in the afternoon.
The third day the man decided to start a conversation with the fisherman;

Tell me fisherman; why do you stop fishing at 12:00? You only work 3 hours a day?
Why should I work so much? the fisherman replied.
"If you work more you can catch more fish.
"Why should I catch more fish?"
"With more fish you can earn more money."
"Why should I want to earn more money?"
"If you save that money are able to work less and enjoy life more."
"I only work three hours a day and enjoy life to the fullest right now"

 

[tjenarvi]

I like this eye opener about economy

 

[erebus]

http://www.jarrattdavis.com/currencies-update-20th-of-july/