Monthly Performance

[Rico]

Those are pretty good trades to start with! I'm feeling much more comfortable with picking trades after only 4 months. So if this is only, say, your second month, i'd say hang in there.

Since last month, though, i also close out early if i think a trade is going to tank it. Plus i no longer use a fixed TP eg 1:4. I watch how the price action is going, and if it looks like it'll continue, i let it run, if i think it's reversing i'll cut it short.

Even so, i use split MM which i find really helpful, as it lets me 'relax' on the second leg - that is, i'm not so concerned if that tanks. If i see it reversing, but think there's a chance it might go into profit again, i'll let it run. But if i really don't think it's going to, i'll close it out.

As to what you class winners or losers, here's how i think about it: any trade that goes into more than, say, -$5 loss is a loser. Anything from there to about $10 positive is a break even (BE) trade. Anthing above that is a winner.

Sure, it might be a small winner, but it's still a winner. It's definitely not a loss, and above some lower limit, it's not really BE. If you look at any win as a positive thing, since you're not moving backwards, and are moving forwards, however slowly, then you won't have an issue calling small profits winners.

A small win to me is much better than a larger loss.

 

[Cedric]

Hey guys, thought I would pipe in here. Its very disappointing that people don't display their results. I agree with Dale in that it is difficult emotionally, trading with an audience, especially while in draw down. However one could always track results privately in myfxbook and post an image of those verified results?
That way you won't have a continuous audience.

I'm not a Pro trader. I have been trading for less than 2 years and using price action for only 1 year but man I can assure you don't go back to indicators!
If I can help motivate a few guys not to give up with PA .. I will share my myfxbook results...
These are all 4 hour chart trades BTW

Yes, yes.. my win-rate sucks 43% and I have had a tough year so far (having a full time job again is my excuse)
Please feel free to critique .. but only if you share your results first

 

[Rico]

Hi Cedric, thanks for sharing your results. I'm new to price action, so can't comment with any real weight, but a 1 year record with a 43% win rate doesn't sound bad.

Not sure what to make of Nial Fuller - though quite a few of the free articles on his site are interesting - but he claims to be a pro, and his win rate is only 30-50% - see the image below of an interview with him. (From
http://www.learntotradethemarket.com/forex-articles/nial-fuller-trader-interview )

You confirm two things: that price action is the way to go and even though that's the case, it's still not a walk in the park.

You're still relatively new and you're up 12% - that's still over 5x better than the banks, so that's pretty good!

I agree with you that it's disappointing that by far the majority of forex educators don't share their results, but i thought your suggestion to post an image of verified results was an excellent one. It gets around the problem of having a continual audience, but still provides a record.

Look at this review of Nial Fuller's course - it gets less than 3 stars, in part, though not wholly, because there's no shared trade record:
http://www.tradingschools.org/reviews/learn-to-trade-the-market-review/

 

[Cedric]

Hi Rico,

I don't know much about Nial's trading but a 30% WR with R/R of 2 will lose money. Also most traders use a breakeven stop for a small win which skews the claimed R/R.. one really needs to look at your average loss/win


It is definitely possible to get a winrate around 70% with a R/R of 2 in my opinion. There have been periods in my trading where I've done even better, you can see different "seasons" in my trading. When I traded full-time and was constantly testing and practicing, my results were pretty amazing (you can see some of that season when the account was new)

Overall the results are far from great. I trade too impulsively and impatiently, making too many errors. I had a 5 month season where I could not get out of DD. During this time I moved house started a new job etc. but its a swing trading system.. so theoretically trading part time shouldn't effect it right?
This is the main reason why my winrate is poor, nothing wrong with the methodology just the execution!

Price action trading is definitely an art that takes practice and discipline. I don't believe you need to settle for average returns 40% WR nonsense, the better you understand price the better your results will become. I used to spend days and days just looking at charts trying to find important areas, decisions, channels etc and how price responded. I still have a lot to learn.
Will try update my results in the future.

Hopefully we can a few more people sharing results?

Cheers

 

[Rico]

Hi Cedric

Nial says in that article that his win rate is *between* 30% and 50% (rather than just 30%), his RR is *generally* between 1:2 and 1:3, but that "you need a few in there that are really going to put you in front."

Even so, that's an interesting table you have there - where does it come from?

Does your view of a 70% win rate come from what you think is possible, or from other sources as well?

Are you trading according to TFG method or something else?

 

[Cedric]

Hi Rico,

That table is just an excel spreadsheet I made to better understand RR/winrate.

Sure he didn't say 30% at 2 RR, I just wanted to illustrate how marginal those results are. 50% at RR of 2 is totally trade-able anything less than 40 is going to be real tough. One mistake a month and you are losing money.
Here's a simulation of trading with stats (40%, 2RR)



That's a hard question to answer as WR depends on RR, skill etc etc. I know a guy who trades a very similar method to me who has a winrate of 88% but his RR is only like 0.7
My assumption is based on testing and my short stint of live/demo trading so whether its possible to achieve I guess is down to the individual. So yes its just my opinion.

I don't trade TFG although I use some similar concepts. It would be nice to hear from someone who trades TFG verbatim..
Have you manually backtested the tradeplan, I know this won't yield true results but it is an important step in "owning" a method.

Cheers

 

[bull375]

Seeing other people's results is not going to make any difference, as experience and strategy that suits ones personality and mindset come into play. Gain as much experience as you can in reading charts. Adapt a strategy that suits your personality and mindset as there are infinite strategies out there. One requires only three points to succeed in trading as a career: 1) One sound strategy whether it is scalping or short term or intraday or swing or positional that suits ones personality and mindset. 2) Good Risk to reward ratio is a must so that even if you loose 5 trades, you should be able to cover up your losses 3) Money management must always be used correctly so that one risks only 2% of their equity.

Most traders fail in all the three above points and never succeed. Hence 95% of traders lose.

Regards,
Kumar

 

[Cedric]

If you invest your money with a fund manager surely you would want to see their past performance. Shouldn't it be the same when investing time/money into a trading methodology..

 

[Rico]

Hi Cedric, no i haven't manually tested the trading plan. But going by my results after 6 months, it's not that flash. It may be the case that you can't expect decent results in 6 months. But i also kept a record of my results with TFG's Chart of the Day (COD), and my success rate with these is dismal - under 10%.

I should say that i don't trade every COD. I haven't been around for some, i don't like some etc. But of the ones i did trade, there's less discretion involved in trading them than my other trading, where i'd follow the method but choose the pairs myself.

I haven't been around for a while, so haven't posted my May or June results, but i'll do that now.

What follows are my results for May, which was a losing month, although i only lost $85 (demo money).



Last month, though, was worse.



I lost over $400 and almost reached back to my worst drawdown since starting.