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yes, it does boil down to that, is the extra risk worth the reward.

Hi TFG, there is probably no formula that will be right. Which is why I question the 2% of equity figure. I think that you have to have an idea of probability of being right (win/loss rate) to be able to scale your trades and size. And this may vary with trades. Say you have a risk/reward of at...

Hi TFG, 2 points: the momentum trade (aka turtle type strategy) or the anti-move with failure of this (turtle soup) could be played from either side. i.e you could be watching for the turtle move or the failure of that as a trigger. I guess you could go with the turtle move, then flip to the...

Does anyone have a suggestion for determining their maximum risk or position size (as % equity) and optimal leverage ratios? Basically I don't mind about the size of the drawdown potentially as long as it does not go to zero, but want to maximize the rate of increase of the equity. I have read...

Maybe too early for long term yen pair trades and too late for short. Something that has really interested me lately is the long term on AUD.NZD If this is a bottom then this has a lot of runway. Anyway, I entered long today with a view to hold for 12 months. Negative carry of around 1.5% but...

Will there be another EM crisis ? Would UJ and other yen crosses be bid with flight to safety. For me, with the Chinese stock market going parabolic, it seems there will be another EM crisis but not yet, until that blows up. Thanks for sharing your links erebus, great stuff. I like this blog for...

Hi erebus, thnks for that tip. I have thought a few times, why didn't I keep UJ or EU for much longer but my trade size was always too big to do that. What I need to do for long term trades is to take small size and hold with no trailing S/L. With EUR/JPY that has bounced a lot lately. With...

Hi hafizhanif84, swap rate is relevant but looking back I don't think it would have made much difference to the main 3 trending pairs I have been active in (AU, UJ, EU). I mean it makes a difference in terms of holding cost only if there is no trend move. But the trend move in the last 6 months...

Hi tjenarvi, thanks for your thoughts. I have been in the stockmarket since 1998, but Forex I've only looked at lately as stocks were getting too low risk:return in terms of being long but not high enough to go short in any scale. >What if the market you trade is in a bound range too much...

Hi everyone. This is my first post and I apologize if this has been discussed previously (please amalgamate it into an existing thread TFG if this has been discussed previously). I wanted to guage people's thoughts about very long term positions ie. 1 year or longer. I am a relative newbie and...